@article {3531, title = {Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {384}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Sep 13}, pages = {980-1004}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75\% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.

METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95\% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.

FINDINGS: 292,982 (95\% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0{\textperiodcentered}3\% (-1{\textperiodcentered}1 to 0{\textperiodcentered}6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2{\textperiodcentered}7\% (-3{\textperiodcentered}9 to -1{\textperiodcentered}5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0{\textperiodcentered}4\% (0{\textperiodcentered}2-0{\textperiodcentered}6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956{\textperiodcentered}8 (685{\textperiodcentered}1-1262{\textperiodcentered}8) in South Sudan to 2{\textperiodcentered}4 (1{\textperiodcentered}6-3{\textperiodcentered}6) in Iceland.

INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.

FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Cause of Death, Female, Global Health, HIV Infections, Humans, Maternal Mortality, Models, Statistical, Organizational Objectives, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {1474-547X}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60696-6}, author = {Kassebaum, Nicholas J and Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia and Coggeshall, Megan S and Shackelford, Katya A and Steiner, Caitlyn and Heuton, Kyle R and Gonzalez-Medina, Diego and Barber, Ryan and Huynh, Chantal and Dicker, Daniel and Templin, Tara and Wolock, Timothy M and Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Achoki, Tom and Adelekan, Ademola and Ademi, Zanfina and Adou, Ars{\`e}ne Kouablan and Adsuar, Jos{\'e} C and Agardh, Emilie E and Akena, Dickens and Alasfoor, Deena and Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw and Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Raghib and Al Kahbouri, Mazin J and Alla, Fran{\c c}ois and Allen, Peter J and AlMazroa, Mohammad A and Alsharif, Ubai and Alvarez, Elena and Alvis-Guzm{\'a}n, Nelson and Amankwaa, Adansi A and Amare, Azmeraw T and Amini, Hassan and Ammar, Walid and Antonio, Carl A T and Anwari, Palwasha and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic and Artaman, Ali and Asad, Majed Masoud and Asghar, Rana J and Assadi, Reza and Atkins, Lydia S and Badawi, Alaa and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Basu, Arindam and Basu, Sanjay and Beardsley, Justin and Bedi, Neeraj and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Bernabe, Eduardo and Beyene, Tariku J and Bhutta, Zulfiqar and Bin Abdulhak, Aref and Blore, Jed D and Basara, Berrak Bora and Bose, Dipan and Breitborde, Nicholas and C{\'a}rdenas, Rosario and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Castro, Ruben Estanislao and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Cavlin, Alanur and Chang, Jung-Chen and Che, Xuan and Christophi, Costas A and Chugh, Sumeet S and Cirillo, Massimo and Colquhoun, Samantha M and Cooper, Leslie Trumbull and Cooper, Cyrus and da Costa Leite, Iuri and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Davis, Adrian and Dayama, Anand and Degenhardt, Louisa and De Leo, Diego and del Pozo-Cruz, Borja and Deribe, Kebede and Dessalegn, Muluken and deVeber, Gabrielle A and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dilmen, U{\u g}ur and Ding, Eric L and Dorrington, Rob E and Driscoll, Tim R and Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich and Esteghamati, Alireza and Faraon, Emerito Jose A and Farzadfar, Farshad and Felicio, Manuela Mendonca and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and de Lima, Gra{\c c}a Maria Ferreira and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Fran{\c c}a, Elisabeth B and Gaffikin, Lynne and Gambashidze, Ketevan and Gankp{\'e}, Fortun{\'e} Gb{\`e}toho and Garcia, Ana C and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gibney, Katherine B and Giroud, Maurice and Glaser, Elizabeth L and Goginashvili, Ketevan and Gona, Philimon and Gonz{\'a}lez-Castell, Dinorah and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rajeev and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi and Hammami, Mouhanad and Hankey, Graeme J and Harb, Hilda L and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Simon I and Pi, Ileana B Heredia and Hoek, Hans W and Hosgood, H Dean and Hoy, Damian G and Husseini, Abdullatif and Idrisov, Bulat T and Innos, Kaire and Inoue, Manami and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jahangir, Eiman and Jee, Sun Ha and Jensen, Paul N and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kabagambe, Edmond Kato and Kan, Haidong and Karam, Nadim E and Karch, Andr{\'e} and Karema, Corine Kakizi and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazanjan, Konstantin and Kazi, Dhruv S and Kemp, Andrew H and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khan, Ejaz Ahmed and Khang, Young-Ho and Knibbs, Luke and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, Soewarta and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Kulkarni, Chanda and Kulkarni, Veena S and Kumar, G Anil and Kumar, Kaushalendra and Kumar, Ravi B and Kwan, Gene and Lai, Taavi and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lam, Hilton and Lansingh, Van C and Larsson, Anders and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leigh, James and Leinsalu, Mall and Leung, Ricky and Li, Xiaohong and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongmei and Liang, Juan and Liang, Xiaofeng and Lim, Stephen S and Lin, Hsien-Ho and Lipshultz, Steven E and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lloyd, Belinda K and London, Stephanie J and Lotufo, Paulo A and Ma, Jixiang and Ma, Stefan and Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro and Mainoo, Nana Kwaku and Majdan, Marek and Mapoma, Christopher Chabila and Marcenes, Wagner and Marzan, Melvin Barrientos and Mason-Jones, Amanda J and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Mokdad, Ali H and Mola, Glen Liddell and Monasta, Lorenzo and de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan and Hernandez, Julio Cesar Monta{\~n}ez and Moore, Ami R and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Mori, Rintaro and Mueller, Ulrich O and Mukaigawara, Mitsuru and Naheed, Aliya and Naidoo, Kovin S and Nand, Devina and Nangia, Vinay and Nash, Denis and Nejjari, Chakib and Nelson, Robert G and Neupane, Sudan Prasad and Newton, Charles R and Ng, Marie and Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J and Nisar, Muhammad Imran and Nolte, Sandra and Norheim, Ole F and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Oh, In-Hwan and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Olusanya, Bolajoko O and Omer, Saad B and Opio, John Nelson and Orisakwe, Orish Ebere and Pandian, Jeyaraj D and Papachristou, Christina and Park, Jae-Hyun and Caicedo, Angel J Paternina and Patten, Scott B and Paul, Vinod K and Pavlin, Boris Igor and Pearce, Neil and Pereira, David M and Pesudovs, Konrad and Petzold, Max and Poenaru, Dan and Polanczyk, Guilherme V and Polinder, Suzanne and Pope, Dan and Pourmalek, Farshad and Qato, Dima and Quistberg, D Alex and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and ur Rahman, Sajjad and Raju, Murugesan and Rana, Saleem M and Refaat, Amany and Ronfani, Luca and Roy, Nobhojit and Pimienta, Tania Georgina S{\'a}nchez and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Salomon, Joshua A and Sampson, Uchechukwu and Santos, Itamar S and Sawhney, Monika and Sayinzoga, Felix and Schneider, Ione J C and Schumacher, Austin and Schwebel, David C and Seedat, Soraya and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Servan-Mori, Edson E and Shakh-Nazarova, Marina and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin Hyun and Shiue, Ivy and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Silberberg, Donald H and Silva, Andrea P and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soshnikov, Sergey S and Sposato, Luciano A and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Sturua, Lela and Sykes, Bryan L and Tabb, Karen M and Talongwa, Roberto Tchio and Tan, Feng and Teixeira, Carolina Maria and Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Tirschwell, David L and Towbin, Jeffrey A and Tran, Bach X and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and Uchendu, Uche S and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Undurraga, Eduardo A and Uzun, Selen Beg{\"u}m and Vallely, Andrew J and van Gool, Coen H and Vasankari, Tommi J and Vavilala, Monica S and Venketasubramanian, N and Villalpando, Salvador and Violante, Francesco S and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vos, Theo and Waller, Stephen and Wang, Haidong and Wang, Linhong and Wang, XiaoRong and Wang, Yanping and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Westerman, Ronny and Wilkinson, James D and Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret and Wong, John Q and Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera and Xu, Gelin and Yang, Yang C and Yano, Yuichiro and Yentur, Gokalp Kadri and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa Z and Yu, Chuanhua and Jin, Kim Yun and El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa and Zhao, Yong and Zheng, Yingfeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Zou, Xiao Nong and Lopez, Alan D and Naghavi, Mohsen and Murray, Christopher J L and Lozano, Rafael} } @article {3532, title = {Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {384}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Sep 13}, pages = {957-79}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.

METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.

FINDINGS: We estimated that 6{\textperiodcentered}3 million (95\% UI 6{\textperiodcentered}0-6{\textperiodcentered}6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64\% reduction from 17{\textperiodcentered}6 million (17{\textperiodcentered}1-18{\textperiodcentered}1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152{\textperiodcentered}5 per 1000 livebirths (130{\textperiodcentered}6-177{\textperiodcentered}4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2{\textperiodcentered}3 (1{\textperiodcentered}8-2{\textperiodcentered}9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6{\textperiodcentered}8\% to 0{\textperiodcentered}1\%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41{\textperiodcentered}6\% of under-5 deaths compared with 37{\textperiodcentered}4\% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1{\textperiodcentered}4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0{\textperiodcentered}9 million and 2{\textperiodcentered}2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4{\textperiodcentered}2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1\% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.

INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

}, keywords = {Child Mortality, Child, Preschool, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant Mortality, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors}, issn = {1474-547X}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9}, author = {Wang, Haidong and Liddell, Chelsea A and Coates, Matthew M and Mooney, Meghan D and Levitz, Carly E and Schumacher, Austin E and Apfel, Henry and Iannarone, Marissa and Phillips, Bryan and Lofgren, Katherine T and Sandar, Logan and Dorrington, Rob E and Rakovac, Ivo and Jacobs, Troy A and Liang, Xiaofeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Yang, Gonghuan and Wang, Yanping and Liu, Shiwei and Li, Yichong and Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Achoki, Tom and Adelekan, Ademola and Ademi, Zanfina and Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw and Allen, Peter J and AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz and Alvarez, Elena and Amankwaa, Adansi A and Amare, Azmeraw T and Ammar, Walid and Anwari, Palwasha and Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu and Asad, Majed Masoud and Assadi, Reza and Banerjee, Amitava and Basu, Sanjay and Bedi, Neeraj and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Bhutta, Zulfiqar and Blore, Jed D and Basara, Berrak Bora and Boufous, Soufiane and Breitborde, Nicholas and Bruce, Nigel G and Bui, Linh Ngoc and Carapetis, Jonathan R and C{\'a}rdenas, Rosario and Carpenter, David O and Caso, Valeria and Castro, Ruben Estanislao and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Cavlin, Alanur and Che, Xuan and Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christophi, Costas A and Chuang, Ting-Wu and Cirillo, Massimo and da Costa Leite, Iuri and Courville, Karen J and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Davis, Adrian and Dayama, Anand and Deribe, Kebede and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dherani, Mukesh K and Dilmen, U{\u g}ur and Ding, Eric L and Edmond, Karen M and Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fijabi, Daniel Obadare and Foigt, Nataliya and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Garcia, Ana C and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gessner, Bradford D and Goginashvili, Ketevan and Gona, Philimon and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Green, Mark A and Greenwell, Karen Fern and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Gupta, Rahul and Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi and Hammami, Mouhanad and Harb, Hilda L and Hay, Simon and Hedayati, Mohammad T and Hosgood, H Dean and Hoy, Damian G and Idrisov, Bulat T and Islami, Farhad and Ismayilova, Samaya and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kabagambe, Edmond Kato and Kazi, Dhruv S and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khang, Young-Ho and Kim, Daniel and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, Soewarta and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Kumar, G Anil and Kumar, Kaushalendra and Kumar, Ravi B and Lai, Taavi and Lan, Qing and Larsson, Anders and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leinsalu, Mall and Lim, Stephen S and Lipshultz, Steven E and Logroscino, Giancarlo and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Lyons, Ronan Anthony and Ma, Stefan and Mahdi, Abbas Ali and Marzan, Melvin Barrientos and Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq and Mazorodze, Tasara T and McGrath, John J and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Mensah, George A and Meretoja, Atte and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin and Mokdad, Ali H and Monasta, Lorenzo and Montico, Marcella and Moore, Ami R and Moschandreas, Joanna and Msemburi, William T and Mueller, Ulrich O and Muszynska, Magdalena M and Naghavi, Mohsen and Naidoo, Kovin S and Narayan, K M Venkat and Nejjari, Chakib and Ng, Marie and de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean and Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Omer, Saad B and Caicedo, Angel J Paternina and Pillay-van Wyk, Victoria and Pope, Dan and Pourmalek, Farshad and Prabhakaran, Dorairaj and Rahman, Sajjad U R and Rana, Saleem M and Reilly, Robert Quentin and Rojas-Rueda, David and Ronfani, Luca and Rushton, Lesley and Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya and Salomon, Joshua A and Sampson, Uchechukwu and Santos, Itamar S and Sawhney, Monika and Schmidt, J{\"u}rgen C and Shakh-Nazarova, Marina and She, Jun and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin Hyun and Shishani, Kawkab and Shiue, Ivy and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soshnikov, Sergey S and Sposato, Luciano A and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Tabb, Karen M and Talongwa, Roberto Tchio and Teixeira, Carolina Maria and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thomson, Alan J and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Toyoshima, Hideaki and Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala and Uwaliraye, Parfait and Uzun, Selen Beg{\"u}m and Vasankari, Tommi J and Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vollset, Stein Emil and Waller, Stephen and Wan, Xia and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Westerman, Ronny and Wilkinson, James D and Williams, Hywel C and Yang, Yang C and Yentur, Gokalp Kadri and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Younis, Mustafa and Yu, Chuanhua and Jin, Kim Yun and El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa and Zhu, Shankuan and Vos, Theo and Lopez, Alan D and Murray, Christopher J L} }