@article {10524, title = {Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study.}, journal = {JAMA Pediatr}, volume = {171}, year = {2017}, month = {2017 Jun 01}, pages = {573-592}, abstract = {

Importance: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

Evidence Review: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

Findings: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95\% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95\% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75\%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61\%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3\% (95\% UI, 3.1\%-5.6\%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

Conclusions and Relevance: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

}, keywords = {Adolescent, Adolescent Health, Age Factors, Cause of Death, Child, Child Health, Child Mortality, Disabled Children, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Male, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Complications, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Wounds and Injuries}, issn = {2168-6211}, doi = {10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250}, author = {Kassebaum, Nicholas and Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe and Zoeckler, Leo and Olsen, Helen Elizabeth and Thomas, Katie and Pinho, Christine and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Dandona, Lalit and Ferrari, Alize and Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde and Hay, Simon I and Kinfu, Yohannes and Liang, Xiaofeng and Lopez, Alan and Malta, Deborah Carvalho and Mokdad, Ali H and Naghavi, Mohsen and Patton, George C and Salomon, Joshua and Sartorius, Benn and Topor-Madry, Roman and Vollset, Stein Emil and Werdecker, Andrea and Whiteford, Harvey A and Abate, Kalkidan Hasen and Abbas, Kaja and Damtew, Solomon Abrha and Ahmed, Muktar Beshir and Akseer, Nadia and Al-Raddadi, Rajaa and Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa and Altirkawi, Khalid and Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu and Amare, Azmeraw T and Antonio, Carl A T and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Artaman, Al and Asayesh, Hamid and Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur and Awasthi, Ashish and Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina and Bacha, Umar and Betsu, Balem Demtsu and Barac, Aleksandra and B{\"a}rnighausen, Till Winfried and Baye, Estifanos and Bedi, Neeraj and Bensenor, Isabela M and Berhane, Adugnaw and Bernabe, Eduardo and Bernal, Oscar Alberto and Beyene, Addisu Shunu and Biadgilign, Sibhatu and Bikbov, Boris and Boyce, Cheryl Anne and Brazinova, Alexandra and Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa and Carter, Austin and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Charlson, Fiona J and Chitheer, Abdulaal A and Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine and Ciobanu, Liliana G and Crump, John and Dandona, Rakhi and Dellavalle, Robert P and Deribew, Amare and deVeber, Gabrielle and Dicker, Daniel and Ding, Eric L and Dubey, Manisha and Endries, Amanuel Yesuf and Erskine, Holly E and Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino and Faro, Andre and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fernandes, Joao C and Fijabi, Daniel Obadare and Fitzmaurice, Christina and Fleming, Thomas D and Flor, Luisa Sorio and Foreman, Kyle J and Franklin, Richard C and Fraser, Maya S and Frostad, Joseph J and Fullman, Nancy and Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe and Gebru, Alemseged Aregay and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gibney, Katherine B and Gidey Yihdego, Mahari and Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed and Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo and Gizachew, Tessema Assefa and Glaser, Elizabeth and Gold, Audra L and Goldberg, Ellen and Gona, Philimon and Goto, Atsushi and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Jiang, Guohong and Gupta, Rajeev and Tesfay, Fisaha Haile and Hankey, Graeme J and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hijar, Martha and Horino, Masako and Hosgood, H Dean and Hu, Guoqing and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B and Jayaraman, Sudha P and Jha, Vivekanand and Jibat, Tariku and Johnson, Catherine O and Jonas, Jost and Kasaeian, Amir and Kawakami, Norito and Keiyoro, Peter N and Khalil, Ibrahim and Khang, Young-Ho and Khubchandani, Jagdish and Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A and Kieling, Christian and Kim, Daniel and Kissoon, Niranjan and Knibbs, Luke D and Koyanagi, Ai and Krohn, Kristopher J and Kuate Defo, Barthelemy and Kucuk Bicer, Burcu and Kulikoff, Rachel and Kumar, G Anil and Lal, Dharmesh Kumar and Lam, Hilton Y and Larson, Heidi J and Larsson, Anders and Laryea, Dennis Odai and Leung, Janni and Lim, Stephen S and Lo, Loon-Tzian and Lo, Warren D and Looker, Katharine J and Lotufo, Paulo A and Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan and Malekzadeh, Reza and Markos Shifti, Desalegn and Mazidi, Mohsen and Meaney, Peter A and Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam and Memiah, Peter and Mendoza, Walter and Abera Mengistie, Mubarek and Mengistu, Gebremichael Welday and Mensah, George A and Miller, Ted R and Mock, Charles and Mohammadi, Alireza and Mohammed, Shafiu and Monasta, Lorenzo and Mueller, Ulrich and Nagata, Chie and Naheed, Aliya and Nguyen, Grant and Nguyen, Quyen Le and Nsoesie, Elaine and Oh, In-Hwan and Okoro, Anselm and Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun and Olusanya, Bolajoko O and Ortiz, Alberto and Paudel, Deepak and Pereira, David M and Perico, Norberto and Petzold, Max and Phillips, Michael Robert and Polanczyk, Guilherme V and Pourmalek, Farshad and Qorbani, Mostafa and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and Rahman, Mahfuzar and Rai, Rajesh Kumar and Ram, Usha and Rankin, Zane and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Renzaho, Andre M N and Roba, Hirbo Shore and Rojas-Rueda, David and Ronfani, Luca and Sagar, Rajesh and Sanabria, Juan Ramon and Kedir Mohammed, Muktar Sano and Santos, Itamar S and Satpathy, Maheswar and Sawhney, Monika and Sch{\"o}ttker, Ben and Schwebel, David C and Scott, James G and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Shaheen, Amira and Shaikh, Masood Ali and She, June and Shiri, Rahman and Shiue, Ivy and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Singh, Jasvinder and Silpakit, Naris and Smith, Alison and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar and Stanaway, Jeffrey D and Stein, Dan J and Steiner, Caitlyn and Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale and Swaminathan, Soumya and Tabar{\'e}s-Seisdedos, Rafael and Tabb, Karen M and Tadese, Fentaw and Tavakkoli, Mohammad and Taye, Bineyam and Teeple, Stephanie and Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw and Temam Shifa, Girma and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thomas, Bernadette and Thomson, Alan J and Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan and Tonelli, Marcello and Tran, Bach Xuan and Troeger, Christopher and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Uthman, Olalekan and Vasankari, Tommi and Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert and Gebrehiwot, Solomon Weldemariam and Westerman, Ronny and Williams, Hywel C and Wolfe, Charles D A and Woodbrook, Rachel and Yano, Yuichiro and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa Z and Yu, Chuanhua and Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed and Zegeye, Elias Asfaw and Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna and Murray, Christopher J L and Vos, Theo} } @article {7723, title = {The Global Burden of Cancer 2013.}, journal = {JAMA Oncol}, volume = {1}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jul}, pages = {505-27}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013.

EVIDENCE REVIEW: The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs.

FINDINGS: In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10\% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10\% in 12 of 188 countries.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.

}, issn = {2374-2445}, doi = {10.1001/jamaoncol.2015.0735}, author = {Fitzmaurice, Christina and Dicker, Daniel and Pain, Amanda and Hamavid, Hannah and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and MacIntyre, Michael F and Allen, Christine and Hansen, Gillian and Woodbrook, Rachel and Wolfe, Charles and Hamadeh, Randah R and Moore, Ami and Werdecker, Andrea and Gessner, Bradford D and Te Ao, Braden and McMahon, Brian and Karimkhani, Chante and Yu, Chuanhua and Cooke, Graham S and Schwebel, David C and Carpenter, David O and Pereira, David M and Nash, Denis and Kazi, Dhruv S and De Leo, Diego and Plass, Dietrich and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Thurston, George D and Yun Jin, Kim and Simard, Edgar P and Mills, Edward and Park, Eun-Kee and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and deVeber, Gabrielle and Gotay, Carolyn and Khan, Gulfaraz and Hosgood, H Dean and Santos, Itamar S and Leasher, Janet L and Singh, Jasvinder and Leigh, James and Jonas, Jost and Sanabria, Juan and Beardsley, Justin and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Takahashi, Ken and Franklin, Richard C and Ronfani, Luca and Montico, Marcella and Naldi, Luigi and Tonelli, Marcello and Geleijnse, Johanna and Petzold, Max and Shrime, Mark G and Younis, Mustafa and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Breitborde, Nicholas and Yip, Paul and Pourmalek, Farshad and Lotufo, Paulo A and Esteghamati, Alireza and Hankey, Graeme J and Ali, Raghib and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Malekzadeh, Reza and Dellavalle, Robert and Weintraub, Robert and Lucas, Robyn and Hay, Roderick and Rojas-Rueda, David and Westerman, Ronny and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Nolte, Sandra and Patten, Scott and Weichenthal, Scott and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Shiue, Ivy and Driscoll, Tim and Vasankari, Tommi and Alsharif, Ubai and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and Vlassov, Vasiliy V and Marcenes, W S and Mekonnen, Wubegzier and Melaku, Yohannes Adama and Yano, Yuichiro and Artaman, Al and Campos, Ismael and MacLachlan, Jennifer and Mueller, Ulrich and Kim, Daniel and Trillini, Matias and Eshrati, Babak and Williams, Hywel C and Shibuya, Kenji and Dandona, Rakhi and Murthy, Kinnari and Cowie, Benjamin and Amare, Azmeraw T and Antonio, Carl Abelardo and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, Carlos and van Gool, Coen H and Violante, Francesco and Oh, In-Hwan and Deribe, Kedede and Soreide, Kjetil and Knibbs, Luke and Kereselidze, Maia and Green, Mark and C{\'a}rdenas, Rosario and Roy, Nobhojit and Tillman, Taavi and Li, Yongmei and Krueger, Hans and Monasta, Lorenzo and Dey, Subhojit and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Kumar, G Anil and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Dandona, Lalit and Wang, Haidong and Vollset, Stein Emil and Mokdad, Ali and Salomon, Joshua A and Lozano, Rafael and Vos, Theo and Forouzanfar, Mohammad and Lopez, Alan and Murray, Christopher and Naghavi, Mohsen} } @article {8043, title = {Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {386}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Dec 5}, pages = {2287-323}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57{\textperiodcentered}2\% (95\% uncertainty interval [UI] 55{\textperiodcentered}8-58{\textperiodcentered}5) of deaths and 41{\textperiodcentered}6\% (40{\textperiodcentered}1-43{\textperiodcentered}0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87{\textperiodcentered}9\% (86{\textperiodcentered}5-89{\textperiodcentered}3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0\% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5\% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11{\textperiodcentered}3 million deaths and 241{\textperiodcentered}4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10{\textperiodcentered}4 million deaths and 208{\textperiodcentered}1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1{\textperiodcentered}7 million deaths and 176{\textperiodcentered}9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6{\textperiodcentered}1 million deaths and 143{\textperiodcentered}5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5{\textperiodcentered}5 million deaths and 141{\textperiodcentered}5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4{\textperiodcentered}4 million deaths and 134{\textperiodcentered}0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation.

}, issn = {1474-547X}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2}, author = {Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Alexander, Lily and Anderson, H Ross and Bachman, Victoria F and Biryukov, Stan and Brauer, Michael and Burnett, Richard and Casey, Daniel and Coates, Matthew M and Cohen, Aaron and Delwiche, Kristen and Estep, Kara and Frostad, Joseph J and Astha, K C and Kyu, Hmwe H and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Ng, Marie and Slepak, Erica Leigh and Thomas, Bernadette A and Wagner, Joseph and Aasvang, Gunn Marit and Abbafati, Cristiana and Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abera, Semaw F and Aboyans, Victor and Abraham, Biju and Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E and Aburto, Tania C and Achoki, Tom and Adelekan, Ademola and Adofo, Koranteng and Adou, Ars{\`e}ne K and Adsuar, Jos{\'e} C and Afshin, Ashkan and Agardh, Emilie E and Al Khabouri, Mazin J and Al Lami, Faris H and Alam, Sayed Saidul and Alasfoor, Deena and Albittar, Mohammed I and Alegretti, Miguel A and Aleman, Alicia V and Alemu, Zewdie A and Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Raghib and Ali, Mohammed K and Alla, Fran{\c c}ois and Allebeck, Peter and Allen, Peter J and Alsharif, Ubai and Alvarez, Elena and Alvis-Guzm{\'a}n, Nelson and Amankwaa, Adansi A and Amare, Azmeraw T and Ameh, Emmanuel A and Ameli, Omid and Amini, Heresh and Ammar, Walid and Anderson, Benjamin O and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T and Anwari, Palwasha and Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic and Artaman, Al and Asghar, Rana J and Assadi, Reza and Atkins, Lydia S and Atkinson, Charles and Avila, Marco A and Awuah, Baffour and Badawi, Alaa and Bahit, Maria C and Bakfalouni, Talal and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Balalla, Shivanthi and Balu, Ravi Kumar and Banerjee, Amitava and Barber, Ryan M and Barker-Collo, Suzanne L and Barquera, Simon and Barregard, Lars and Barrero, Lope H and Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh and Basto-Abreu, Ana C and Basu, Arindam and Basu, Sanjay and Basulaiman, Mohammed O and Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina and Beardsley, Justin and Bedi, Neeraj and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Benjet, Corina and Bennett, Derrick A and Benzian, Habib and Bernabe, Eduardo and Beyene, Tariku J and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhalla, Ashish and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Bikbov, Boris and Bin Abdulhak, Aref A and Blore, Jed D and Blyth, Fiona M and Bohensky, Megan A and Bora Ba{\c s}ara, Berrak and Borges, Guilherme and Bornstein, Natan M and Bose, Dipan and Boufous, Soufiane and Bourne, Rupert R and Brainin, Michael and Brazinova, Alexandra and Breitborde, Nicholas J and Brenner, Hermann and Briggs, Adam D M and Broday, David M and Brooks, Peter M and Bruce, Nigel G and Brugha, Traolach S and Brunekreef, Bert and Buchbinder, Rachelle and Bui, Linh N and Bukhman, Gene and Bulloch, Andrew G and Burch, Michael and Burney, Peter G J and Campos-Nonato, Ismael R and Campuzano, Julio C and Cantoral, Alejandra J and Caravanos, Jack and C{\'a}rdenas, Rosario and Cardis, Elisabeth and Carpenter, David O and Caso, Valeria and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Castro, Ruben E and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Cavalleri, Fiorella and Cavlin, Alanur and Chadha, Vineet K and Chang, Jung-Chen and Charlson, Fiona J and Chen, Honglei and Chen, Wanqing and Chen, Zhengming and Chiang, Peggy P and Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christophi, Costas A and Chuang, Ting-Wu and Chugh, Sumeet S and Cirillo, Massimo and Cla{\ss}en, Thomas K D and Colistro, Valentina and Colomar, Mercedes and Colquhoun, Samantha M and Contreras, Alejandra G and Cooper, Cyrus and Cooperrider, Kimberly and Cooper, Leslie T and Coresh, Josef and Courville, Karen J and Criqui, Michael H and Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia and Damsere-Derry, James and Danawi, Hadi and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Dargan, Paul I and Davis, Adrian and Davitoiu, Dragos V and Dayama, Anand and de Castro, E Filipa and De la Cruz-G{\'o}ngora, Vanessa and De Leo, Diego and de Lima, Gra{\c c}a and Degenhardt, Louisa and del Pozo-Cruz, Borja and Dellavalle, Robert P and Deribe, Kebede and Derrett, Sarah and Des Jarlais, Don C and Dessalegn, Muluken and deVeber, Gabrielle A and Devries, Karen M and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dherani, Mukesh K and Dicker, Daniel and Ding, Eric L and Dokova, Klara and Dorsey, E Ray and Driscoll, Tim R and Duan, Leilei and Durrani, Adnan M and Ebel, Beth E and Ellenbogen, Richard G and Elshrek, Yousef M and Endres, Matthias and Ermakov, Sergey P and Erskine, Holly E and Eshrati, Babak and Esteghamati, Alireza and Fahimi, Saman and Faraon, Emerito Jose A and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fay, Derek F J and Feigin, Valery L and Feigl, Andrea B and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Ferrari, Alize J and Ferri, Cleusa P and Flaxman, Abraham D and Fleming, Thomas D and Foigt, Nataliya and Foreman, Kyle J and Paleo, Urbano Fra and Franklin, Richard C and Gabbe, Belinda and Gaffikin, Lynne and Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gamkrelidze, Amiran and Gankp{\'e}, Fortun{\'e} G and Gansevoort, Ron T and Garc{\'\i}a-Guerra, Francisco A and Gasana, Evariste and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gessner, Bradford D and Gething, Pete and Gibney, Katherine B and Gillum, Richard F and Ginawi, Ibrahim A M and Giroud, Maurice and Giussani, Giorgia and Goenka, Shifalika and Goginashvili, Ketevan and Gomez Dantes, Hector and Gona, Philimon and Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita and Gonz{\'a}lez-Castell, Dinorah and Gotay, Carolyn C and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Guerrant, Richard L and Gugnani, Harish C and Guillemin, Francis and Gunnell, David and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rajeev and Guti{\'e}rrez, Reyna A and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hagan, Holly and Hagstromer, Maria and Halasa, Yara A and Hamadeh, Randah R and Hammami, Mouhanad and Hankey, Graeme J and Hao, Yuantao and Harb, Hilda L and Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu and Haro, Josep Maria and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Simon I and Hedayati, Mohammad T and Heredia-Pi, Ileana B and Hernandez, Lucia and Heuton, Kyle R and Heydarpour, Pouria and Hijar, Martha and Hoek, Hans W and Hoffman, Howard J and Hornberger, John C and Hosgood, H Dean and Hoy, Damian G and Hsairi, Mohamed and Hu, Guoqing and Hu, Howard and Huang, Cheng and Huang, John J and Hubbell, Bryan J and Huiart, Laetitia and Husseini, Abdullatif and Iannarone, Marissa L and Iburg, Kim M and Idrisov, Bulat T and Ikeda, Nayu and Innos, Kaire and Inoue, Manami and Islami, Farhad and Ismayilova, Samaya and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jansen, Henrica A and Jarvis, Deborah L and Jassal, Simerjot K and Jauregui, Alejandra and Jayaraman, Sudha and Jeemon, Panniyammakal and Jensen, Paul N and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Fan and Jiang, Guohong and Jiang, Ying and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kan, Haidong and Kany Roseline, Sidibe S and Karam, Nadim E and Karch, Andr{\'e} and Karema, Corine K and Karthikeyan, Ganesan and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazi, Dhruv S and Kemp, Andrew H and Kengne, Andre P and Keren, Andre and Khader, Yousef S and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khan, Ejaz A and Khang, Young-Ho and Khatibzadeh, Shahab and Khonelidze, Irma and Kieling, Christian and Kim, Daniel and Kim, Sungroul and Kim, Yunjin and Kimokoti, Ruth W and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M and Kissela, Brett M and Kivipelto, Miia and Knibbs, Luke D and Knudsen, Ann Kristin and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kose, M Rifat and Kosen, Soewarta and Kraemer, Alexander and Kravchenko, Michael and Krishnaswami, Sanjay and Kromhout, Hans and Ku, Tiffany and Kuate Defo, Barthelemy and Kucuk Bicer, Burcu and Kuipers, Ernst J and Kulkarni, Chanda and Kulkarni, Veena S and Kumar, G Anil and Kwan, Gene F and Lai, Taavi and Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lallukka, Tea and Lam, Hilton and Lan, Qing and Lansingh, Van C and Larson, Heidi J and Larsson, Anders and Laryea, Dennis O and Lavados, Pablo M and Lawrynowicz, Alicia E and Leasher, Janet L and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leigh, James and Leung, Ricky and Levi, Miriam and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongmei and Liang, Juan and Liang, Xiaofeng and Lim, Stephen S and Lindsay, M Patrice and Lipshultz, Steven E and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lloyd, Belinda K and Logroscino, Giancarlo and London, Stephanie J and Lopez, Nancy and Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lozano, Rafael and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Ma, Jixiang and Ma, Stefan and Machado, Vasco M P and MacIntyre, Michael F and Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos and Mahdi, Abbas A and Majdan, Marek and Malekzadeh, Reza and Mangalam, Srikanth and Mapoma, Christopher C and Marape, Marape and Marcenes, Wagner and Margolis, David J and Margono, Christopher and Marks, Guy B and Martin, Randall V and Marzan, Melvin B and Mashal, Mohammad T and Masiye, Felix and Mason-Jones, Amanda J and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Matzopoulos, Richard and Mayosi, Bongani M and Mazorodze, Tasara T and McKay, Abigail C and McKee, Martin and McLain, Abigail and Meaney, Peter A and Medina, Catalina and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola and Mekonnen, Wubegzier and Melaku, Yohannes A and Meltzer, Michele and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Mensah, George A and Meretoja, Atte and Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary and Micha, Renata and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Misganaw, Awoke and Mishra, Santosh and Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah and Mohammad, Karzan A and Mokdad, Ali H and Mola, Glen L and Monasta, Lorenzo and Monta{\~n}ez Hernandez, Julio C and Montico, Marcella and Moore, Ami R and Morawska, Lidia and Mori, Rintaro and Moschandreas, Joanna and Moturi, Wilkister N and Mozaffarian, Dariush and Mueller, Ulrich O and Mukaigawara, Mitsuru and Mullany, Erin C and Murthy, Kinnari S and Naghavi, Mohsen and Nahas, Ziad and Naheed, Aliya and Naidoo, Kovin S and Naldi, Luigi and Nand, Devina and Nangia, Vinay and Narayan, K M Venkat and Nash, Denis and Neal, Bruce and Nejjari, Chakib and Neupane, Sudan P and Newton, Charles R and Ngalesoni, Frida N and Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu and Nguyen, Grant and Nguyen, Nhung T and Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J and Nisar, Muhammad I and Nogueira, Jos{\'e} R and Nolla, Joan M and Nolte, Sandra and Norheim, Ole F and Norman, Rosana E and Norrving, Bo and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Oh, In-Hwan and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Olusanya, Bolajoko O and Omer, Saad B and Opio, John Nelson and Orozco, Ricardo and Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S and Pain, Amanda W and Pandian, Jeyaraj D and Panelo, Carlo Irwin A and Papachristou, Christina and Park, Eun-Kee and Parry, Charles D and Paternina Caicedo, Angel J and Patten, Scott B and Paul, Vinod K and Pavlin, Boris I and Pearce, Neil and Pedraza, Lilia S and Pedroza, Andrea and Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana and Pekericli, Ayfer and Pereira, David M and Perez-Padilla, Rogelio and Perez-Ruiz, Fernando and Perico, Norberto and Perry, Samuel A L and Pervaiz, Aslam and Pesudovs, Konrad and Peterson, Carrie B and Petzold, Max and Phillips, Michael R and Phua, Hwee Pin and Plass, Dietrich and Poenaru, Dan and Polanczyk, Guilherme V and Polinder, Suzanne and Pond, Constance D and Pope, C Arden and Pope, Daniel and Popova, Svetlana and Pourmalek, Farshad and Powles, John and Prabhakaran, Dorairaj and Prasad, Noela M and Qato, Dima M and Quezada, Amado D and Quistberg, D Alex A and Racap{\'e}, Lionel and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and Rahman, Sajjad Ur and Raju, Murugesan and Rakovac, Ivo and Rana, Saleem M and Rao, Mayuree and Razavi, Homie and Reddy, K Srinath and Refaat, Amany H and Rehm, J{\"u}rgen and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Ribeiro, Antonio L and Riccio, Patricia M and Richardson, Lee and Riederer, Anne and Robinson, Margaret and Roca, Anna and Rodriguez, Alina and Rojas-Rueda, David and Romieu, Isabelle and Ronfani, Luca and Room, Robin and Roy, Nobhojit and Ruhago, George M and Rushton, Lesley and Sabin, Nsanzimana and Sacco, Ralph L and Saha, Sukanta and Sahathevan, Ramesh and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Salomon, Joshua A and Salvo, Deborah and Sampson, Uchechukwu K and Sanabria, Juan R and Sanchez, Luz Maria and S{\'a}nchez-Pimienta, Tania G and Sanchez-Riera, Lidia and Sandar, Logan and Santos, Itamar S and Sapkota, Amir and Satpathy, Maheswar and Saunders, James E and Sawhney, Monika and Saylan, Mete I and Scarborough, Peter and Schmidt, J{\"u}rgen C and Schneider, Ione J C and Sch{\"o}ttker, Ben and Schwebel, David C and Scott, James G and Seedat, Soraya and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Serdar, Berrin and Servan-Mori, Edson E and Shaddick, Gavin and Shahraz, Saeid and Levy, Teresa Shamah and Shangguan, Siyi and She, Jun and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin H and Shinohara, Yukito and Shiri, Rahman and Shishani, Kawkab and Shiue, Ivy and Sigfusdottir, Inga D and Silberberg, Donald H and Simard, Edgar P and Sindi, Shireen and Singh, Abhishek and Singh, Gitanjali M and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soljak, Michael and Soneji, Samir and S{\o}reide, Kjetil and Soshnikov, Sergey and Sposato, Luciano A and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Stapelberg, Nicolas J C and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki and Steckling, Nadine and Stein, Dan J and Stein, Murray B and Stephens, Natalie and St{\"o}ckl, Heidi and Straif, Kurt and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Sturua, Lela and Sunguya, Bruno F and Swaminathan, Soumya and Swaroop, Mamta and Sykes, Bryan L and Tabb, Karen M and Takahashi, Ken and Talongwa, Roberto T and Tandon, Nikhil and Tanne, David and Tanner, Marcel and Tavakkoli, Mohammad and Te Ao, Braden J and Teixeira, Carolina M and T{\'e}llez Rojo, Martha M and Terkawi, Abdullah S and Texcalac-Sangrador, Jos{\'e} Luis and Thackway, Sarah V and Thomson, Blake and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Thrift, Amanda G and Thurston, George D and Tillmann, Taavi and Tobollik, Myriam and Tonelli, Marcello and Topouzis, Fotis and Towbin, Jeffrey A and Toyoshima, Hideaki and Traebert, Jefferson and Tran, Bach X and Trasande, Leonardo and Trillini, Matias and Trujillo, Ulises and Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and Tuzcu, Emin Murat and Uchendu, Uche S and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Uzun, Selen B and van de Vijver, Steven and Van Dingenen, Rita and van Gool, Coen H and van Os, Jim and Varakin, Yuri Y and Vasankari, Tommi J and Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N and Vavilala, Monica S and Veerman, Lennert J and Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo and Venketasubramanian, N and Vijayakumar, Lakshmi and Villalpando, Salvador and Violante, Francesco S and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vollset, Stein Emil and Wagner, Gregory R and Waller, Stephen G and Wallin, Mitchell T and Wan, Xia and Wang, Haidong and Wang, JianLi and Wang, Linhong and Wang, Wenzhi and Wang, Yanping and Warouw, Tati S and Watts, Charlotte H and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Werdecker, Andrea and Wessells, K Ryan and Westerman, Ronny and Whiteford, Harvey A and Wilkinson, James D and Williams, Hywel C and Williams, Thomas N and Woldeyohannes, Solomon M and Wolfe, Charles D A and Wong, John Q and Woolf, Anthony D and Wright, Jonathan L and Wurtz, Brittany and Xu, Gelin and Yan, Lijing L and Yang, Gonghuan and Yano, Yuichiro and Ye, Pengpeng and Yenesew, Muluken and Yent{\"u}r, G{\"o}kalp K and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa Z and Younoussi, Zourkaleini and Yu, Chuanhua and Zaki, Maysaa E and Zhao, Yong and Zheng, Yingfeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Zhu, Shankuan and Zou, Xiaonong and Zunt, Joseph R and Lopez, Alan D and Vos, Theo and Murray, Christopher J} } @article {3576, title = {Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {384}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Sep 13}, pages = {1005-70}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1{\textperiodcentered}8 million new HIV infections (95\% uncertainty interval 1{\textperiodcentered}7 million to 2{\textperiodcentered}1 million), 29{\textperiodcentered}2 million prevalent HIV cases (28{\textperiodcentered}1 to 31{\textperiodcentered}7), and 1{\textperiodcentered}3 million HIV deaths (1{\textperiodcentered}3 to 1{\textperiodcentered}5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1{\textperiodcentered}7 million deaths (1{\textperiodcentered}6 million to 1{\textperiodcentered}9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19{\textperiodcentered}1 million life-years (16{\textperiodcentered}6 million to 21{\textperiodcentered}5 million) have been saved, 70{\textperiodcentered}3\% (65{\textperiodcentered}4 to 76{\textperiodcentered}1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7{\textperiodcentered}5 million (7{\textperiodcentered}4 million to 7{\textperiodcentered}7 million), prevalence was 11{\textperiodcentered}9 million (11{\textperiodcentered}6 million to 12{\textperiodcentered}2 million), and number of deaths was 1{\textperiodcentered}4 million (1{\textperiodcentered}3 million to 1{\textperiodcentered}5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7{\textperiodcentered}1 million (6{\textperiodcentered}9 million to 7{\textperiodcentered}3 million), prevalence was 11{\textperiodcentered}2 million (10{\textperiodcentered}8 million to 11{\textperiodcentered}6 million), and number of deaths was 1{\textperiodcentered}3 million (1{\textperiodcentered}2 million to 1{\textperiodcentered}4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64{\textperiodcentered}0\% of cases (63{\textperiodcentered}6 to 64{\textperiodcentered}3) and 64{\textperiodcentered}7\% of deaths (60{\textperiodcentered}8 to 70{\textperiodcentered}3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1{\textperiodcentered}2 million deaths (1{\textperiodcentered}1 million to 1{\textperiodcentered}4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31{\textperiodcentered}5\% (15{\textperiodcentered}7 to 44{\textperiodcentered}1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18{\textperiodcentered}7\% smaller than UNAIDS{\textquoteright}s estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Epidemics, Female, Global Health, HIV Infections, Humans, Incidence, Malaria, Male, Mortality, Organizational Objectives, Sex Distribution, Tuberculosis}, issn = {1474-547X}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8}, author = {Murray, Christopher J L and Ortblad, Katrina F and Guinovart, Caterina and Lim, Stephen S and Wolock, Timothy M and Roberts, D Allen and Dansereau, Emily A and Graetz, Nicholas and Barber, Ryan M and Brown, Jonathan C and Wang, Haidong and Duber, Herbert C and Naghavi, Mohsen and Dicker, Daniel and Dandona, Lalit and Salomon, Joshua A and Heuton, Kyle R and Foreman, Kyle and Phillips, David E and Fleming, Thomas D and Flaxman, Abraham D and Phillips, Bryan K and Johnson, Elizabeth K and Coggeshall, Megan S and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Abraham, Jerry P and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Abu-Raddad, Laith J and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me and Achoki, Tom and Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi and Adou, Ars{\`e}ne Kouablan and Adsuar, Jos{\'e} C and Agardh, Emilie Elisabet and Akena, Dickens and Al Kahbouri, Mazin J and Alasfoor, Deena and Albittar, Mohammed I and Alcal{\'a}-Cerra, Gabriel and Alegretti, Miguel Angel and Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw and Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Raghib and Alla, Fran{\c c}ois and Allen, Peter J and Alsharif, Ubai and Alvarez, Elena and Alvis-Guzm{\'a}n, Nelson and Amankwaa, Adansi A and Amare, Azmeraw T and Amini, Hassan and Ammar, Walid and Anderson, Benjamin O and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T and Anwari, Palwasha and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic and Artaman, Ali and Asghar, Rana J and Assadi, Reza and Atkins, Lydia S and Badawi, Alaa and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Banerjee, Amitava and Basu, Sanjay and Beardsley, Justin and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Bernabe, Eduardo and Beyene, Tariku Jibat and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhalla, Ashish and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Abdulhak, Aref Bin and Binagwaho, Agnes and Blore, Jed D and Basara, Berrak Bora and Bose, Dipan and Brainin, Michael and Breitborde, Nicholas and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Chadha, Vineet K and Chang, Jung-Chen and Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia and Chuang, Ting-Wu and Colomar, Mercedes and Cooper, Leslie Trumbull and Cooper, Cyrus and Courville, Karen J and Cowie, Benjamin C and Criqui, Michael H and Dandona, Rakhi and Dayama, Anand and De Leo, Diego and Degenhardt, Louisa and del Pozo-Cruz, Borja and Deribe, Kebede and Des Jarlais, Don C and Dessalegn, Muluken and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dilmen, U{\u g}ur and Ding, Eric L and Driscoll, Tim R and Durrani, Adnan M and Ellenbogen, Richard G and Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich and Esteghamati, Alireza and Faraon, Emerito Jose A and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fijabi, Daniel Obadare and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Fra Paleo, Urbano and Gaffikin, Lynne and Gamkrelidze, Amiran and Gankp{\'e}, Fortun{\'e} Gb{\`e}toho and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gessner, Bradford D and Gibney, Katherine B and Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed and Glaser, Elizabeth L and Gona, Philimon and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Gupta, Rajeev and Gupta, Rahul and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi and Hammami, Mouhanad and Hankey, Graeme J and Harb, Hilda L and Haro, Josep Maria and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Simon I and Hedayati, Mohammad T and Pi, Ileana B Heredia and Hoek, Hans W and Hornberger, John C and Hosgood, H Dean and Hotez, Peter J and Hoy, Damian G and Huang, John J and Iburg, Kim M and Idrisov, Bulat T and Innos, Kaire and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jeemon, Panniyammakal and Jensen, Paul N and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kan, Haidong and Kankindi, Ida and Karam, Nadim E and Karch, Andr{\'e} and Karema, Corine Kakizi and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazi, Dhruv S and Kemp, Andrew H and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Keren, Andre and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khan, Ejaz Ahmed and Khang, Young-Ho and Khonelidze, Irma and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M and Knibbs, Luke and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, S and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Kulkarni, Veena S and Kulkarni, Chanda and Kumar, Kaushalendra and Kumar, Ravi B and Kumar, G Anil and Kwan, Gene F and Lai, Taavi and Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana and Lam, Hilton and Lan, Qing and Lansingh, Van C and Larson, Heidi J and Larsson, Anders and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leigh, James and Leinsalu, Mall and Leung, Ricky and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongmei and de Lima, Gra{\c c}a Maria Ferreira and Lin, Hsien-Ho and Lipshultz, Steven E and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lloyd, Belinda K and Lotufo, Paulo A and Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro and Maclachlan, Jennifer H and Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos and Majdan, Marek and Mapoma, Christopher Chabila and Marcenes, Wagner and Marzan, Melvin Barrientos and Masci, Joseph R and Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq and Mason-Jones, Amanda J and Mayosi, Bongani M and Mazorodze, Tasara T and Mckay, Abigail Cecilia and Meaney, Peter A and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola and Melaku, Yohannes Adama and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin and Mokdad, Ali H and Mola, Glen Liddell and Monasta, Lorenzo and Montico, Marcella and Moore, Ami R and Mori, Rintaro and Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora and Mukaigawara, Mitsuru and Murthy, Kinnari S and Naheed, Aliya and Naidoo, Kovin S and Naldi, Luigi and Nangia, Vinay and Narayan, K M Venkat and Nash, Denis and Nejjari, Chakib and Nelson, Robert G and Neupane, Sudan Prasad and Newton, Charles R and Ng, Marie and Nisar, Muhammad Imran and Nolte, Sandra and Norheim, Ole F and Nowaseb, Vincent and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Oh, In-Hwan and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Olusanya, Bolajoko O and Omer, Saad B and Opio, John Nelson and Orisakwe, Orish Ebere and Pandian, Jeyaraj D and Papachristou, Christina and Caicedo, Angel J Paternina and Patten, Scott B and Paul, Vinod K and Pavlin, Boris Igor and Pearce, Neil and Pereira, David M and Pervaiz, Aslam and Pesudovs, Konrad and Petzold, Max and Pourmalek, Farshad and Qato, Dima and Quezada, Amado D and Quistberg, D Alex and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and ur Rahman, Sajjad and Raju, Murugesan and Rana, Saleem M and Razavi, Homie and Reilly, Robert Quentin and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Richardus, Jan Hendrik and Ronfani, Luca and Roy, Nobhojit and Sabin, Nsanzimana and Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Samonte, Genesis May J and Sawhney, Monika and Schneider, Ione J C and Schwebel, David C and Seedat, Soraya and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Servan-Mori, Edson E and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin Hyun and Shiue, Ivy and Shivakoti, Rupak and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Silberberg, Donald H and Silva, Andrea P and Simard, Edgar P and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soneji, Samir and Soshnikov, Sergey S and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Swaminathan, Soumya and Sykes, Bryan L and Tabb, Karen M and Talongwa, Roberto Tchio and Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thomson, Alan J and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Towbin, Jeffrey A and Traebert, Jefferson and Tran, Bach X and Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and Uchendu, Uche S and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Uzun, Selen Beg{\"u}m and Vallely, Andrew J and Vasankari, Tommi J and Venketasubramanian, N and Violante, Francesco S and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vollset, Stein Emil and Waller, Stephen and Wallin, Mitchell T and Wang, Linhong and Wang, XiaoRong and Wang, Yanping and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Westerman, Ronny and White, Richard A and Wilkinson, James D and Williams, Thomas Neil and Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret and Wong, John Q and Xu, Gelin and Yang, Yang C and Yano, Yuichiro and Yentur, Gokalp Kadri and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa and Yu, Chuanhua and Jin, Kim Yun and El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa and Zhao, Yong and Zheng, Yingfeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Zou, Xiao Nong and Lopez, Alan D and Vos, Theo} } @article {3531, title = {Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {384}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Sep 13}, pages = {980-1004}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75\% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.

METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95\% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.

FINDINGS: 292,982 (95\% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0{\textperiodcentered}3\% (-1{\textperiodcentered}1 to 0{\textperiodcentered}6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2{\textperiodcentered}7\% (-3{\textperiodcentered}9 to -1{\textperiodcentered}5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0{\textperiodcentered}4\% (0{\textperiodcentered}2-0{\textperiodcentered}6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956{\textperiodcentered}8 (685{\textperiodcentered}1-1262{\textperiodcentered}8) in South Sudan to 2{\textperiodcentered}4 (1{\textperiodcentered}6-3{\textperiodcentered}6) in Iceland.

INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.

FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Cause of Death, Female, Global Health, HIV Infections, Humans, Maternal Mortality, Models, Statistical, Organizational Objectives, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {1474-547X}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60696-6}, author = {Kassebaum, Nicholas J and Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia and Coggeshall, Megan S and Shackelford, Katya A and Steiner, Caitlyn and Heuton, Kyle R and Gonzalez-Medina, Diego and Barber, Ryan and Huynh, Chantal and Dicker, Daniel and Templin, Tara and Wolock, Timothy M and Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Achoki, Tom and Adelekan, Ademola and Ademi, Zanfina and Adou, Ars{\`e}ne Kouablan and Adsuar, Jos{\'e} C and Agardh, Emilie E and Akena, Dickens and Alasfoor, Deena and Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw and Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Raghib and Al Kahbouri, Mazin J and Alla, Fran{\c c}ois and Allen, Peter J and AlMazroa, Mohammad A and Alsharif, Ubai and Alvarez, Elena and Alvis-Guzm{\'a}n, Nelson and Amankwaa, Adansi A and Amare, Azmeraw T and Amini, Hassan and Ammar, Walid and Antonio, Carl A T and Anwari, Palwasha and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic and Artaman, Ali and Asad, Majed Masoud and Asghar, Rana J and Assadi, Reza and Atkins, Lydia S and Badawi, Alaa and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Basu, Arindam and Basu, Sanjay and Beardsley, Justin and Bedi, Neeraj and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Bernabe, Eduardo and Beyene, Tariku J and Bhutta, Zulfiqar and Bin Abdulhak, Aref and Blore, Jed D and Basara, Berrak Bora and Bose, Dipan and Breitborde, Nicholas and C{\'a}rdenas, Rosario and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Castro, Ruben Estanislao and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Cavlin, Alanur and Chang, Jung-Chen and Che, Xuan and Christophi, Costas A and Chugh, Sumeet S and Cirillo, Massimo and Colquhoun, Samantha M and Cooper, Leslie Trumbull and Cooper, Cyrus and da Costa Leite, Iuri and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Davis, Adrian and Dayama, Anand and Degenhardt, Louisa and De Leo, Diego and del Pozo-Cruz, Borja and Deribe, Kebede and Dessalegn, Muluken and deVeber, Gabrielle A and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dilmen, U{\u g}ur and Ding, Eric L and Dorrington, Rob E and Driscoll, Tim R and Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich and Esteghamati, Alireza and Faraon, Emerito Jose A and Farzadfar, Farshad and Felicio, Manuela Mendonca and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and de Lima, Gra{\c c}a Maria Ferreira and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Fran{\c c}a, Elisabeth B and Gaffikin, Lynne and Gambashidze, Ketevan and Gankp{\'e}, Fortun{\'e} Gb{\`e}toho and Garcia, Ana C and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gibney, Katherine B and Giroud, Maurice and Glaser, Elizabeth L and Goginashvili, Ketevan and Gona, Philimon and Gonz{\'a}lez-Castell, Dinorah and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rajeev and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi and Hammami, Mouhanad and Hankey, Graeme J and Harb, Hilda L and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Simon I and Pi, Ileana B Heredia and Hoek, Hans W and Hosgood, H Dean and Hoy, Damian G and Husseini, Abdullatif and Idrisov, Bulat T and Innos, Kaire and Inoue, Manami and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jahangir, Eiman and Jee, Sun Ha and Jensen, Paul N and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kabagambe, Edmond Kato and Kan, Haidong and Karam, Nadim E and Karch, Andr{\'e} and Karema, Corine Kakizi and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazanjan, Konstantin and Kazi, Dhruv S and Kemp, Andrew H and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khan, Ejaz Ahmed and Khang, Young-Ho and Knibbs, Luke and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, Soewarta and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Kulkarni, Chanda and Kulkarni, Veena S and Kumar, G Anil and Kumar, Kaushalendra and Kumar, Ravi B and Kwan, Gene and Lai, Taavi and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lam, Hilton and Lansingh, Van C and Larsson, Anders and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leigh, James and Leinsalu, Mall and Leung, Ricky and Li, Xiaohong and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongmei and Liang, Juan and Liang, Xiaofeng and Lim, Stephen S and Lin, Hsien-Ho and Lipshultz, Steven E and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lloyd, Belinda K and London, Stephanie J and Lotufo, Paulo A and Ma, Jixiang and Ma, Stefan and Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro and Mainoo, Nana Kwaku and Majdan, Marek and Mapoma, Christopher Chabila and Marcenes, Wagner and Marzan, Melvin Barrientos and Mason-Jones, Amanda J and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Mokdad, Ali H and Mola, Glen Liddell and Monasta, Lorenzo and de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan and Hernandez, Julio Cesar Monta{\~n}ez and Moore, Ami R and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Mori, Rintaro and Mueller, Ulrich O and Mukaigawara, Mitsuru and Naheed, Aliya and Naidoo, Kovin S and Nand, Devina and Nangia, Vinay and Nash, Denis and Nejjari, Chakib and Nelson, Robert G and Neupane, Sudan Prasad and Newton, Charles R and Ng, Marie and Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J and Nisar, Muhammad Imran and Nolte, Sandra and Norheim, Ole F and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Oh, In-Hwan and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Olusanya, Bolajoko O and Omer, Saad B and Opio, John Nelson and Orisakwe, Orish Ebere and Pandian, Jeyaraj D and Papachristou, Christina and Park, Jae-Hyun and Caicedo, Angel J Paternina and Patten, Scott B and Paul, Vinod K and Pavlin, Boris Igor and Pearce, Neil and Pereira, David M and Pesudovs, Konrad and Petzold, Max and Poenaru, Dan and Polanczyk, Guilherme V and Polinder, Suzanne and Pope, Dan and Pourmalek, Farshad and Qato, Dima and Quistberg, D Alex and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and ur Rahman, Sajjad and Raju, Murugesan and Rana, Saleem M and Refaat, Amany and Ronfani, Luca and Roy, Nobhojit and Pimienta, Tania Georgina S{\'a}nchez and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Salomon, Joshua A and Sampson, Uchechukwu and Santos, Itamar S and Sawhney, Monika and Sayinzoga, Felix and Schneider, Ione J C and Schumacher, Austin and Schwebel, David C and Seedat, Soraya and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Servan-Mori, Edson E and Shakh-Nazarova, Marina and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin Hyun and Shiue, Ivy and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Silberberg, Donald H and Silva, Andrea P and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soshnikov, Sergey S and Sposato, Luciano A and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Sturua, Lela and Sykes, Bryan L and Tabb, Karen M and Talongwa, Roberto Tchio and Tan, Feng and Teixeira, Carolina Maria and Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Tirschwell, David L and Towbin, Jeffrey A and Tran, Bach X and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and Uchendu, Uche S and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Undurraga, Eduardo A and Uzun, Selen Beg{\"u}m and Vallely, Andrew J and van Gool, Coen H and Vasankari, Tommi J and Vavilala, Monica S and Venketasubramanian, N and Villalpando, Salvador and Violante, Francesco S and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vos, Theo and Waller, Stephen and Wang, Haidong and Wang, Linhong and Wang, XiaoRong and Wang, Yanping and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Westerman, Ronny and Wilkinson, James D and Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret and Wong, John Q and Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera and Xu, Gelin and Yang, Yang C and Yano, Yuichiro and Yentur, Gokalp Kadri and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa Z and Yu, Chuanhua and Jin, Kim Yun and El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa and Zhao, Yong and Zheng, Yingfeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Zou, Xiao Nong and Lopez, Alan D and Naghavi, Mohsen and Murray, Christopher J L and Lozano, Rafael} }