@article {8043, title = {Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {386}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Dec 5}, pages = {2287-323}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57{\textperiodcentered}2\% (95\% uncertainty interval [UI] 55{\textperiodcentered}8-58{\textperiodcentered}5) of deaths and 41{\textperiodcentered}6\% (40{\textperiodcentered}1-43{\textperiodcentered}0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87{\textperiodcentered}9\% (86{\textperiodcentered}5-89{\textperiodcentered}3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0\% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5\% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11{\textperiodcentered}3 million deaths and 241{\textperiodcentered}4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10{\textperiodcentered}4 million deaths and 208{\textperiodcentered}1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1{\textperiodcentered}7 million deaths and 176{\textperiodcentered}9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6{\textperiodcentered}1 million deaths and 143{\textperiodcentered}5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5{\textperiodcentered}5 million deaths and 141{\textperiodcentered}5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4{\textperiodcentered}4 million deaths and 134{\textperiodcentered}0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation.

}, issn = {1474-547X}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2}, author = {Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Alexander, Lily and Anderson, H Ross and Bachman, Victoria F and Biryukov, Stan and Brauer, Michael and Burnett, Richard and Casey, Daniel and Coates, Matthew M and Cohen, Aaron and Delwiche, Kristen and Estep, Kara and Frostad, Joseph J and Astha, K C and Kyu, Hmwe H and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Ng, Marie and Slepak, Erica Leigh and Thomas, Bernadette A and Wagner, Joseph and Aasvang, Gunn Marit and Abbafati, Cristiana and Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abera, Semaw F and Aboyans, Victor and Abraham, Biju and Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E and Aburto, Tania C and Achoki, Tom and Adelekan, Ademola and Adofo, Koranteng and Adou, Ars{\`e}ne K and Adsuar, Jos{\'e} C and Afshin, Ashkan and Agardh, Emilie E and Al Khabouri, Mazin J and Al Lami, Faris H and Alam, Sayed Saidul and Alasfoor, Deena and Albittar, Mohammed I and Alegretti, Miguel A and Aleman, Alicia V and Alemu, Zewdie A and Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Raghib and Ali, Mohammed K and Alla, Fran{\c c}ois and Allebeck, Peter and Allen, Peter J and Alsharif, Ubai and Alvarez, Elena and Alvis-Guzm{\'a}n, Nelson and Amankwaa, Adansi A and Amare, Azmeraw T and Ameh, Emmanuel A and Ameli, Omid and Amini, Heresh and Ammar, Walid and Anderson, Benjamin O and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T and Anwari, Palwasha and Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic and Artaman, Al and Asghar, Rana J and Assadi, Reza and Atkins, Lydia S and Atkinson, Charles and Avila, Marco A and Awuah, Baffour and Badawi, Alaa and Bahit, Maria C and Bakfalouni, Talal and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Balalla, Shivanthi and Balu, Ravi Kumar and Banerjee, Amitava and Barber, Ryan M and Barker-Collo, Suzanne L and Barquera, Simon and Barregard, Lars and Barrero, Lope H and Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh and Basto-Abreu, Ana C and Basu, Arindam and Basu, Sanjay and Basulaiman, Mohammed O and Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina and Beardsley, Justin and Bedi, Neeraj and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Benjet, Corina and Bennett, Derrick A and Benzian, Habib and Bernabe, Eduardo and Beyene, Tariku J and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhalla, Ashish and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Bikbov, Boris and Bin Abdulhak, Aref A and Blore, Jed D and Blyth, Fiona M and Bohensky, Megan A and Bora Ba{\c s}ara, Berrak and Borges, Guilherme and Bornstein, Natan M and Bose, Dipan and Boufous, Soufiane and Bourne, Rupert R and Brainin, Michael and Brazinova, Alexandra and Breitborde, Nicholas J and Brenner, Hermann and Briggs, Adam D M and Broday, David M and Brooks, Peter M and Bruce, Nigel G and Brugha, Traolach S and Brunekreef, Bert and Buchbinder, Rachelle and Bui, Linh N and Bukhman, Gene and Bulloch, Andrew G and Burch, Michael and Burney, Peter G J and Campos-Nonato, Ismael R and Campuzano, Julio C and Cantoral, Alejandra J and Caravanos, Jack and C{\'a}rdenas, Rosario and Cardis, Elisabeth and Carpenter, David O and Caso, Valeria and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Castro, Ruben E and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Cavalleri, Fiorella and Cavlin, Alanur and Chadha, Vineet K and Chang, Jung-Chen and Charlson, Fiona J and Chen, Honglei and Chen, Wanqing and Chen, Zhengming and Chiang, Peggy P and Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christophi, Costas A and Chuang, Ting-Wu and Chugh, Sumeet S and Cirillo, Massimo and Cla{\ss}en, Thomas K D and Colistro, Valentina and Colomar, Mercedes and Colquhoun, Samantha M and Contreras, Alejandra G and Cooper, Cyrus and Cooperrider, Kimberly and Cooper, Leslie T and Coresh, Josef and Courville, Karen J and Criqui, Michael H and Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia and Damsere-Derry, James and Danawi, Hadi and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Dargan, Paul I and Davis, Adrian and Davitoiu, Dragos V and Dayama, Anand and de Castro, E Filipa and De la Cruz-G{\'o}ngora, Vanessa and De Leo, Diego and de Lima, Gra{\c c}a and Degenhardt, Louisa and del Pozo-Cruz, Borja and Dellavalle, Robert P and Deribe, Kebede and Derrett, Sarah and Des Jarlais, Don C and Dessalegn, Muluken and deVeber, Gabrielle A and Devries, Karen M and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dherani, Mukesh K and Dicker, Daniel and Ding, Eric L and Dokova, Klara and Dorsey, E Ray and Driscoll, Tim R and Duan, Leilei and Durrani, Adnan M and Ebel, Beth E and Ellenbogen, Richard G and Elshrek, Yousef M and Endres, Matthias and Ermakov, Sergey P and Erskine, Holly E and Eshrati, Babak and Esteghamati, Alireza and Fahimi, Saman and Faraon, Emerito Jose A and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fay, Derek F J and Feigin, Valery L and Feigl, Andrea B and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Ferrari, Alize J and Ferri, Cleusa P and Flaxman, Abraham D and Fleming, Thomas D and Foigt, Nataliya and Foreman, Kyle J and Paleo, Urbano Fra and Franklin, Richard C and Gabbe, Belinda and Gaffikin, Lynne and Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gamkrelidze, Amiran and Gankp{\'e}, Fortun{\'e} G and Gansevoort, Ron T and Garc{\'\i}a-Guerra, Francisco A and Gasana, Evariste and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gessner, Bradford D and Gething, Pete and Gibney, Katherine B and Gillum, Richard F and Ginawi, Ibrahim A M and Giroud, Maurice and Giussani, Giorgia and Goenka, Shifalika and Goginashvili, Ketevan and Gomez Dantes, Hector and Gona, Philimon and Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita and Gonz{\'a}lez-Castell, Dinorah and Gotay, Carolyn C and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Guerrant, Richard L and Gugnani, Harish C and Guillemin, Francis and Gunnell, David and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rajeev and Guti{\'e}rrez, Reyna A and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hagan, Holly and Hagstromer, Maria and Halasa, Yara A and Hamadeh, Randah R and Hammami, Mouhanad and Hankey, Graeme J and Hao, Yuantao and Harb, Hilda L and Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu and Haro, Josep Maria and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Simon I and Hedayati, Mohammad T and Heredia-Pi, Ileana B and Hernandez, Lucia and Heuton, Kyle R and Heydarpour, Pouria and Hijar, Martha and Hoek, Hans W and Hoffman, Howard J and Hornberger, John C and Hosgood, H Dean and Hoy, Damian G and Hsairi, Mohamed and Hu, Guoqing and Hu, Howard and Huang, Cheng and Huang, John J and Hubbell, Bryan J and Huiart, Laetitia and Husseini, Abdullatif and Iannarone, Marissa L and Iburg, Kim M and Idrisov, Bulat T and Ikeda, Nayu and Innos, Kaire and Inoue, Manami and Islami, Farhad and Ismayilova, Samaya and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jansen, Henrica A and Jarvis, Deborah L and Jassal, Simerjot K and Jauregui, Alejandra and Jayaraman, Sudha and Jeemon, Panniyammakal and Jensen, Paul N and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Fan and Jiang, Guohong and Jiang, Ying and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kan, Haidong and Kany Roseline, Sidibe S and Karam, Nadim E and Karch, Andr{\'e} and Karema, Corine K and Karthikeyan, Ganesan and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazi, Dhruv S and Kemp, Andrew H and Kengne, Andre P and Keren, Andre and Khader, Yousef S and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khan, Ejaz A and Khang, Young-Ho and Khatibzadeh, Shahab and Khonelidze, Irma and Kieling, Christian and Kim, Daniel and Kim, Sungroul and Kim, Yunjin and Kimokoti, Ruth W and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M and Kissela, Brett M and Kivipelto, Miia and Knibbs, Luke D and Knudsen, Ann Kristin and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kose, M Rifat and Kosen, Soewarta and Kraemer, Alexander and Kravchenko, Michael and Krishnaswami, Sanjay and Kromhout, Hans and Ku, Tiffany and Kuate Defo, Barthelemy and Kucuk Bicer, Burcu and Kuipers, Ernst J and Kulkarni, Chanda and Kulkarni, Veena S and Kumar, G Anil and Kwan, Gene F and Lai, Taavi and Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lallukka, Tea and Lam, Hilton and Lan, Qing and Lansingh, Van C and Larson, Heidi J and Larsson, Anders and Laryea, Dennis O and Lavados, Pablo M and Lawrynowicz, Alicia E and Leasher, Janet L and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leigh, James and Leung, Ricky and Levi, Miriam and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongmei and Liang, Juan and Liang, Xiaofeng and Lim, Stephen S and Lindsay, M Patrice and Lipshultz, Steven E and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lloyd, Belinda K and Logroscino, Giancarlo and London, Stephanie J and Lopez, Nancy and Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lozano, Rafael and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Ma, Jixiang and Ma, Stefan and Machado, Vasco M P and MacIntyre, Michael F and Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos and Mahdi, Abbas A and Majdan, Marek and Malekzadeh, Reza and Mangalam, Srikanth and Mapoma, Christopher C and Marape, Marape and Marcenes, Wagner and Margolis, David J and Margono, Christopher and Marks, Guy B and Martin, Randall V and Marzan, Melvin B and Mashal, Mohammad T and Masiye, Felix and Mason-Jones, Amanda J and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Matzopoulos, Richard and Mayosi, Bongani M and Mazorodze, Tasara T and McKay, Abigail C and McKee, Martin and McLain, Abigail and Meaney, Peter A and Medina, Catalina and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola and Mekonnen, Wubegzier and Melaku, Yohannes A and Meltzer, Michele and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Mensah, George A and Meretoja, Atte and Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary and Micha, Renata and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Misganaw, Awoke and Mishra, Santosh and Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah and Mohammad, Karzan A and Mokdad, Ali H and Mola, Glen L and Monasta, Lorenzo and Monta{\~n}ez Hernandez, Julio C and Montico, Marcella and Moore, Ami R and Morawska, Lidia and Mori, Rintaro and Moschandreas, Joanna and Moturi, Wilkister N and Mozaffarian, Dariush and Mueller, Ulrich O and Mukaigawara, Mitsuru and Mullany, Erin C and Murthy, Kinnari S and Naghavi, Mohsen and Nahas, Ziad and Naheed, Aliya and Naidoo, Kovin S and Naldi, Luigi and Nand, Devina and Nangia, Vinay and Narayan, K M Venkat and Nash, Denis and Neal, Bruce and Nejjari, Chakib and Neupane, Sudan P and Newton, Charles R and Ngalesoni, Frida N and Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu and Nguyen, Grant and Nguyen, Nhung T and Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J and Nisar, Muhammad I and Nogueira, Jos{\'e} R and Nolla, Joan M and Nolte, Sandra and Norheim, Ole F and Norman, Rosana E and Norrving, Bo and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Oh, In-Hwan and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Olusanya, Bolajoko O and Omer, Saad B and Opio, John Nelson and Orozco, Ricardo and Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S and Pain, Amanda W and Pandian, Jeyaraj D and Panelo, Carlo Irwin A and Papachristou, Christina and Park, Eun-Kee and Parry, Charles D and Paternina Caicedo, Angel J and Patten, Scott B and Paul, Vinod K and Pavlin, Boris I and Pearce, Neil and Pedraza, Lilia S and Pedroza, Andrea and Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana and Pekericli, Ayfer and Pereira, David M and Perez-Padilla, Rogelio and Perez-Ruiz, Fernando and Perico, Norberto and Perry, Samuel A L and Pervaiz, Aslam and Pesudovs, Konrad and Peterson, Carrie B and Petzold, Max and Phillips, Michael R and Phua, Hwee Pin and Plass, Dietrich and Poenaru, Dan and Polanczyk, Guilherme V and Polinder, Suzanne and Pond, Constance D and Pope, C Arden and Pope, Daniel and Popova, Svetlana and Pourmalek, Farshad and Powles, John and Prabhakaran, Dorairaj and Prasad, Noela M and Qato, Dima M and Quezada, Amado D and Quistberg, D Alex A and Racap{\'e}, Lionel and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and Rahman, Sajjad Ur and Raju, Murugesan and Rakovac, Ivo and Rana, Saleem M and Rao, Mayuree and Razavi, Homie and Reddy, K Srinath and Refaat, Amany H and Rehm, J{\"u}rgen and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Ribeiro, Antonio L and Riccio, Patricia M and Richardson, Lee and Riederer, Anne and Robinson, Margaret and Roca, Anna and Rodriguez, Alina and Rojas-Rueda, David and Romieu, Isabelle and Ronfani, Luca and Room, Robin and Roy, Nobhojit and Ruhago, George M and Rushton, Lesley and Sabin, Nsanzimana and Sacco, Ralph L and Saha, Sukanta and Sahathevan, Ramesh and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Salomon, Joshua A and Salvo, Deborah and Sampson, Uchechukwu K and Sanabria, Juan R and Sanchez, Luz Maria and S{\'a}nchez-Pimienta, Tania G and Sanchez-Riera, Lidia and Sandar, Logan and Santos, Itamar S and Sapkota, Amir and Satpathy, Maheswar and Saunders, James E and Sawhney, Monika and Saylan, Mete I and Scarborough, Peter and Schmidt, J{\"u}rgen C and Schneider, Ione J C and Sch{\"o}ttker, Ben and Schwebel, David C and Scott, James G and Seedat, Soraya and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Serdar, Berrin and Servan-Mori, Edson E and Shaddick, Gavin and Shahraz, Saeid and Levy, Teresa Shamah and Shangguan, Siyi and She, Jun and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin H and Shinohara, Yukito and Shiri, Rahman and Shishani, Kawkab and Shiue, Ivy and Sigfusdottir, Inga D and Silberberg, Donald H and Simard, Edgar P and Sindi, Shireen and Singh, Abhishek and Singh, Gitanjali M and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soljak, Michael and Soneji, Samir and S{\o}reide, Kjetil and Soshnikov, Sergey and Sposato, Luciano A and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Stapelberg, Nicolas J C and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki and Steckling, Nadine and Stein, Dan J and Stein, Murray B and Stephens, Natalie and St{\"o}ckl, Heidi and Straif, Kurt and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Sturua, Lela and Sunguya, Bruno F and Swaminathan, Soumya and Swaroop, Mamta and Sykes, Bryan L and Tabb, Karen M and Takahashi, Ken and Talongwa, Roberto T and Tandon, Nikhil and Tanne, David and Tanner, Marcel and Tavakkoli, Mohammad and Te Ao, Braden J and Teixeira, Carolina M and T{\'e}llez Rojo, Martha M and Terkawi, Abdullah S and Texcalac-Sangrador, Jos{\'e} Luis and Thackway, Sarah V and Thomson, Blake and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Thrift, Amanda G and Thurston, George D and Tillmann, Taavi and Tobollik, Myriam and Tonelli, Marcello and Topouzis, Fotis and Towbin, Jeffrey A and Toyoshima, Hideaki and Traebert, Jefferson and Tran, Bach X and Trasande, Leonardo and Trillini, Matias and Trujillo, Ulises and Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and Tuzcu, Emin Murat and Uchendu, Uche S and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Uzun, Selen B and van de Vijver, Steven and Van Dingenen, Rita and van Gool, Coen H and van Os, Jim and Varakin, Yuri Y and Vasankari, Tommi J and Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N and Vavilala, Monica S and Veerman, Lennert J and Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo and Venketasubramanian, N and Vijayakumar, Lakshmi and Villalpando, Salvador and Violante, Francesco S and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vollset, Stein Emil and Wagner, Gregory R and Waller, Stephen G and Wallin, Mitchell T and Wan, Xia and Wang, Haidong and Wang, JianLi and Wang, Linhong and Wang, Wenzhi and Wang, Yanping and Warouw, Tati S and Watts, Charlotte H and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Werdecker, Andrea and Wessells, K Ryan and Westerman, Ronny and Whiteford, Harvey A and Wilkinson, James D and Williams, Hywel C and Williams, Thomas N and Woldeyohannes, Solomon M and Wolfe, Charles D A and Wong, John Q and Woolf, Anthony D and Wright, Jonathan L and Wurtz, Brittany and Xu, Gelin and Yan, Lijing L and Yang, Gonghuan and Yano, Yuichiro and Ye, Pengpeng and Yenesew, Muluken and Yent{\"u}r, G{\"o}kalp K and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa Z and Younoussi, Zourkaleini and Yu, Chuanhua and Zaki, Maysaa E and Zhao, Yong and Zheng, Yingfeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Zhu, Shankuan and Zou, Xiaonong and Zunt, Joseph R and Lopez, Alan D and Vos, Theo and Murray, Christopher J} } @article {3532, title = {Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {384}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Sep 13}, pages = {957-79}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.

METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.

FINDINGS: We estimated that 6{\textperiodcentered}3 million (95\% UI 6{\textperiodcentered}0-6{\textperiodcentered}6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64\% reduction from 17{\textperiodcentered}6 million (17{\textperiodcentered}1-18{\textperiodcentered}1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152{\textperiodcentered}5 per 1000 livebirths (130{\textperiodcentered}6-177{\textperiodcentered}4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2{\textperiodcentered}3 (1{\textperiodcentered}8-2{\textperiodcentered}9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6{\textperiodcentered}8\% to 0{\textperiodcentered}1\%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41{\textperiodcentered}6\% of under-5 deaths compared with 37{\textperiodcentered}4\% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1{\textperiodcentered}4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0{\textperiodcentered}9 million and 2{\textperiodcentered}2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4{\textperiodcentered}2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1\% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.

INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

}, keywords = {Child Mortality, Child, Preschool, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant Mortality, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors}, issn = {1474-547X}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9}, author = {Wang, Haidong and Liddell, Chelsea A and Coates, Matthew M and Mooney, Meghan D and Levitz, Carly E and Schumacher, Austin E and Apfel, Henry and Iannarone, Marissa and Phillips, Bryan and Lofgren, Katherine T and Sandar, Logan and Dorrington, Rob E and Rakovac, Ivo and Jacobs, Troy A and Liang, Xiaofeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Yang, Gonghuan and Wang, Yanping and Liu, Shiwei and Li, Yichong and Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Achoki, Tom and Adelekan, Ademola and Ademi, Zanfina and Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw and Allen, Peter J and AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz and Alvarez, Elena and Amankwaa, Adansi A and Amare, Azmeraw T and Ammar, Walid and Anwari, Palwasha and Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu and Asad, Majed Masoud and Assadi, Reza and Banerjee, Amitava and Basu, Sanjay and Bedi, Neeraj and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Bhutta, Zulfiqar and Blore, Jed D and Basara, Berrak Bora and Boufous, Soufiane and Breitborde, Nicholas and Bruce, Nigel G and Bui, Linh Ngoc and Carapetis, Jonathan R and C{\'a}rdenas, Rosario and Carpenter, David O and Caso, Valeria and Castro, Ruben Estanislao and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Cavlin, Alanur and Che, Xuan and Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christophi, Costas A and Chuang, Ting-Wu and Cirillo, Massimo and da Costa Leite, Iuri and Courville, Karen J and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Davis, Adrian and Dayama, Anand and Deribe, Kebede and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dherani, Mukesh K and Dilmen, U{\u g}ur and Ding, Eric L and Edmond, Karen M and Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fijabi, Daniel Obadare and Foigt, Nataliya and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Garcia, Ana C and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gessner, Bradford D and Goginashvili, Ketevan and Gona, Philimon and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Green, Mark A and Greenwell, Karen Fern and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Gupta, Rahul and Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi and Hammami, Mouhanad and Harb, Hilda L and Hay, Simon and Hedayati, Mohammad T and Hosgood, H Dean and Hoy, Damian G and Idrisov, Bulat T and Islami, Farhad and Ismayilova, Samaya and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kabagambe, Edmond Kato and Kazi, Dhruv S and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khang, Young-Ho and Kim, Daniel and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, Soewarta and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Kumar, G Anil and Kumar, Kaushalendra and Kumar, Ravi B and Lai, Taavi and Lan, Qing and Larsson, Anders and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leinsalu, Mall and Lim, Stephen S and Lipshultz, Steven E and Logroscino, Giancarlo and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Lyons, Ronan Anthony and Ma, Stefan and Mahdi, Abbas Ali and Marzan, Melvin Barrientos and Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq and Mazorodze, Tasara T and McGrath, John J and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Mensah, George A and Meretoja, Atte and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin and Mokdad, Ali H and Monasta, Lorenzo and Montico, Marcella and Moore, Ami R and Moschandreas, Joanna and Msemburi, William T and Mueller, Ulrich O and Muszynska, Magdalena M and Naghavi, Mohsen and Naidoo, Kovin S and Narayan, K M Venkat and Nejjari, Chakib and Ng, Marie and de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean and Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Omer, Saad B and Caicedo, Angel J Paternina and Pillay-van Wyk, Victoria and Pope, Dan and Pourmalek, Farshad and Prabhakaran, Dorairaj and Rahman, Sajjad U R and Rana, Saleem M and Reilly, Robert Quentin and Rojas-Rueda, David and Ronfani, Luca and Rushton, Lesley and Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya and Salomon, Joshua A and Sampson, Uchechukwu and Santos, Itamar S and Sawhney, Monika and Schmidt, J{\"u}rgen C and Shakh-Nazarova, Marina and She, Jun and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin Hyun and Shishani, Kawkab and Shiue, Ivy and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soshnikov, Sergey S and Sposato, Luciano A and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Tabb, Karen M and Talongwa, Roberto Tchio and Teixeira, Carolina Maria and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thomson, Alan J and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Toyoshima, Hideaki and Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala and Uwaliraye, Parfait and Uzun, Selen Beg{\"u}m and Vasankari, Tommi J and Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vollset, Stein Emil and Waller, Stephen and Wan, Xia and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Westerman, Ronny and Wilkinson, James D and Williams, Hywel C and Yang, Yang C and Yentur, Gokalp Kadri and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Younis, Mustafa and Yu, Chuanhua and Jin, Kim Yun and El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa and Zhu, Shankuan and Vos, Theo and Lopez, Alan D and Murray, Christopher J L} }