TY - JOUR T1 - Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. JF - Lancet Y1 - 2014 A1 - Murray, Christopher J L A1 - Ortblad, Katrina F A1 - Guinovart, Caterina A1 - Lim, Stephen S A1 - Wolock, Timothy M A1 - Roberts, D Allen A1 - Dansereau, Emily A A1 - Graetz, Nicholas A1 - Barber, Ryan M A1 - Brown, Jonathan C A1 - Wang, Haidong A1 - Duber, Herbert C A1 - Naghavi, Mohsen A1 - Dicker, Daniel A1 - Dandona, Lalit A1 - Salomon, Joshua A A1 - Heuton, Kyle R A1 - Foreman, Kyle A1 - Phillips, David E A1 - Fleming, Thomas D A1 - Flaxman, Abraham D A1 - Phillips, Bryan K A1 - Johnson, Elizabeth K A1 - Coggeshall, Megan S A1 - Abd-Allah, Foad A1 - Abera, Semaw Ferede A1 - Abraham, Jerry P A1 - Abubakar, Ibrahim A1 - Abu-Raddad, Laith J A1 - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me A1 - Achoki, Tom A1 - Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi A1 - Adou, Arsène Kouablan A1 - Adsuar, José C A1 - Agardh, Emilie Elisabet A1 - Akena, Dickens A1 - Al Kahbouri, Mazin J A1 - Alasfoor, Deena A1 - Albittar, Mohammed I A1 - Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel A1 - Alegretti, Miguel Angel A1 - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw A1 - Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael A1 - Alhabib, Samia A1 - Ali, Raghib A1 - Alla, François A1 - Allen, Peter J A1 - Alsharif, Ubai A1 - Alvarez, Elena A1 - Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson A1 - Amankwaa, Adansi A A1 - Amare, Azmeraw T A1 - Amini, Hassan A1 - Ammar, Walid A1 - Anderson, Benjamin O A1 - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T A1 - Anwari, Palwasha A1 - Arnlöv, Johan A1 - Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic A1 - Artaman, Ali A1 - Asghar, Rana J A1 - Assadi, Reza A1 - Atkins, Lydia S A1 - Badawi, Alaa A1 - Balakrishnan, Kalpana A1 - Banerjee, Amitava A1 - Basu, Sanjay A1 - Beardsley, Justin A1 - Bekele, Tolesa A1 - Bell, Michelle L A1 - Bernabe, Eduardo A1 - Beyene, Tariku Jibat A1 - Bhala, Neeraj A1 - Bhalla, Ashish A1 - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A A1 - Abdulhak, Aref Bin A1 - Binagwaho, Agnes A1 - Blore, Jed D A1 - Basara, Berrak Bora A1 - Bose, Dipan A1 - Brainin, Michael A1 - Breitborde, Nicholas A1 - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A A1 - Catalá-López, Ferrán A1 - Chadha, Vineet K A1 - Chang, Jung-Chen A1 - Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia A1 - Chuang, Ting-Wu A1 - Colomar, Mercedes A1 - Cooper, Leslie Trumbull A1 - Cooper, Cyrus A1 - Courville, Karen J A1 - Cowie, Benjamin C A1 - Criqui, Michael H A1 - Dandona, Rakhi A1 - Dayama, Anand A1 - De Leo, Diego A1 - Degenhardt, Louisa A1 - del Pozo-Cruz, Borja A1 - Deribe, Kebede A1 - Des Jarlais, Don C A1 - Dessalegn, Muluken A1 - Dharmaratne, Samath D A1 - Dilmen, Uğur A1 - Ding, Eric L A1 - Driscoll, Tim R A1 - Durrani, Adnan M A1 - Ellenbogen, Richard G A1 - Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich A1 - Esteghamati, Alireza A1 - Faraon, Emerito Jose A A1 - Farzadfar, Farshad A1 - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad A1 - Fijabi, Daniel Obadare A1 - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H A1 - Fra Paleo, Urbano A1 - Gaffikin, Lynne A1 - Gamkrelidze, Amiran A1 - Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho A1 - Geleijnse, Johanna M A1 - Gessner, Bradford D A1 - Gibney, Katherine B A1 - Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed A1 - Glaser, Elizabeth L A1 - Gona, Philimon A1 - Goto, Atsushi A1 - Gouda, Hebe N A1 - Gugnani, Harish Chander A1 - Gupta, Rajeev A1 - Gupta, Rahul A1 - Hafezi-Nejad, Nima A1 - Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi A1 - Hammami, Mouhanad A1 - Hankey, Graeme J A1 - Harb, Hilda L A1 - Haro, Josep Maria A1 - Havmoeller, Rasmus A1 - Hay, Simon I A1 - Hedayati, Mohammad T A1 - Pi, Ileana B Heredia A1 - Hoek, Hans W A1 - Hornberger, John C A1 - Hosgood, H Dean A1 - Hotez, Peter J A1 - Hoy, Damian G A1 - Huang, John J A1 - Iburg, Kim M A1 - Idrisov, Bulat T A1 - Innos, Kaire A1 - Jacobsen, Kathryn H A1 - Jeemon, Panniyammakal A1 - Jensen, Paul N A1 - Jha, Vivekanand A1 - Jiang, Guohong A1 - Jonas, Jost B A1 - Juel, Knud A1 - Kan, Haidong A1 - Kankindi, Ida A1 - Karam, Nadim E A1 - Karch, André A1 - Karema, Corine Kakizi A1 - Kaul, Anil A1 - Kawakami, Norito A1 - Kazi, Dhruv S A1 - Kemp, Andrew H A1 - Kengne, Andre Pascal A1 - Keren, Andre A1 - Kereselidze, Maia A1 - Khader, Yousef Saleh A1 - Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan A1 - Khan, Ejaz Ahmed A1 - Khang, Young-Ho A1 - Khonelidze, Irma A1 - Kinfu, Yohannes A1 - Kinge, Jonas M A1 - Knibbs, Luke A1 - Kokubo, Yoshihiro A1 - Kosen, S A1 - Defo, Barthelemy Kuate A1 - Kulkarni, Veena S A1 - Kulkarni, Chanda A1 - Kumar, Kaushalendra A1 - Kumar, Ravi B A1 - Kumar, G Anil A1 - Kwan, Gene F A1 - Lai, Taavi A1 - Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana A1 - Lam, Hilton A1 - Lan, Qing A1 - Lansingh, Van C A1 - Larson, Heidi J A1 - Larsson, Anders A1 - Lee, Jong-Tae A1 - Leigh, James A1 - Leinsalu, Mall A1 - Leung, Ricky A1 - Li, Yichong A1 - Li, Yongmei A1 - de Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira A1 - Lin, Hsien-Ho A1 - Lipshultz, Steven E A1 - Liu, Shiwei A1 - Liu, Yang A1 - Lloyd, Belinda K A1 - Lotufo, Paulo A A1 - Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro A1 - Maclachlan, Jennifer H A1 - Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos A1 - Majdan, Marek A1 - Mapoma, Christopher Chabila A1 - Marcenes, Wagner A1 - Marzan, Melvin Barrientos A1 - Masci, Joseph R A1 - Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq A1 - Mason-Jones, Amanda J A1 - Mayosi, Bongani M A1 - Mazorodze, Tasara T A1 - Mckay, Abigail Cecilia A1 - Meaney, Peter A A1 - Mehndiratta, Man Mohan A1 - Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola A1 - Melaku, Yohannes Adama A1 - Memish, Ziad A A1 - Mendoza, Walter A1 - Miller, Ted R A1 - Mills, Edward J A1 - Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin A1 - Mokdad, Ali H A1 - Mola, Glen Liddell A1 - Monasta, Lorenzo A1 - Montico, Marcella A1 - Moore, Ami R A1 - Mori, Rintaro A1 - Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora A1 - Mukaigawara, Mitsuru A1 - Murthy, Kinnari S A1 - Naheed, Aliya A1 - Naidoo, Kovin S A1 - Naldi, Luigi A1 - Nangia, Vinay A1 - Narayan, K M Venkat A1 - Nash, Denis A1 - Nejjari, Chakib A1 - Nelson, Robert G A1 - Neupane, Sudan Prasad A1 - Newton, Charles R A1 - Ng, Marie A1 - Nisar, Muhammad Imran A1 - Nolte, Sandra A1 - Norheim, Ole F A1 - Nowaseb, Vincent A1 - Nyakarahuka, Luke A1 - Oh, In-Hwan A1 - Ohkubo, Takayoshi A1 - Olusanya, Bolajoko O A1 - Omer, Saad B A1 - Opio, John Nelson A1 - Orisakwe, Orish Ebere A1 - Pandian, Jeyaraj D A1 - Papachristou, Christina A1 - Caicedo, Angel J Paternina A1 - Patten, Scott B A1 - Paul, Vinod K A1 - Pavlin, Boris Igor A1 - Pearce, Neil A1 - Pereira, David M A1 - Pervaiz, Aslam A1 - Pesudovs, Konrad A1 - Petzold, Max A1 - Pourmalek, Farshad A1 - Qato, Dima A1 - Quezada, Amado D A1 - Quistberg, D Alex A1 - Rafay, Anwar A1 - Rahimi, Kazem A1 - Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa A1 - ur Rahman, Sajjad A1 - Raju, Murugesan A1 - Rana, Saleem M A1 - Razavi, Homie A1 - Reilly, Robert Quentin A1 - Remuzzi, Giuseppe A1 - Richardus, Jan Hendrik A1 - Ronfani, Luca A1 - Roy, Nobhojit A1 - Sabin, Nsanzimana A1 - Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya A1 - Sahraian, Mohammad Ali A1 - Samonte, Genesis May J A1 - Sawhney, Monika A1 - Schneider, Ione J C A1 - Schwebel, David C A1 - Seedat, Soraya A1 - Sepanlou, Sadaf G A1 - Servan-Mori, Edson E A1 - Sheikhbahaei, Sara A1 - Shibuya, Kenji A1 - Shin, Hwashin Hyun A1 - Shiue, Ivy A1 - Shivakoti, Rupak A1 - Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora A1 - Silberberg, Donald H A1 - Silva, Andrea P A1 - Simard, Edgar P A1 - Singh, Jasvinder A A1 - Skirbekk, Vegard A1 - Sliwa, Karen A1 - Soneji, Samir A1 - Soshnikov, Sergey S A1 - Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T A1 - Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi A1 - Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos A1 - Swaminathan, Soumya A1 - Sykes, Bryan L A1 - Tabb, Karen M A1 - Talongwa, Roberto Tchio A1 - Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah A1 - Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman A1 - Thomson, Alan J A1 - Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L A1 - Towbin, Jeffrey A A1 - Traebert, Jefferson A1 - Tran, Bach X A1 - Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala A1 - Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis A1 - Uchendu, Uche S A1 - Ukwaja, Kingsley N A1 - Uzun, Selen Begüm A1 - Vallely, Andrew J A1 - Vasankari, Tommi J A1 - Venketasubramanian, N A1 - Violante, Francesco S A1 - Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich A1 - Vollset, Stein Emil A1 - Waller, Stephen A1 - Wallin, Mitchell T A1 - Wang, Linhong A1 - Wang, XiaoRong A1 - Wang, Yanping A1 - Weichenthal, Scott A1 - Weiderpass, Elisabete A1 - Weintraub, Robert G A1 - Westerman, Ronny A1 - White, Richard A A1 - Wilkinson, James D A1 - Williams, Thomas Neil A1 - Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret A1 - Wong, John Q A1 - Xu, Gelin A1 - Yang, Yang C A1 - Yano, Yuichiro A1 - Yentur, Gokalp Kadri A1 - Yip, Paul A1 - Yonemoto, Naohiro A1 - Yoon, Seok-Jun A1 - Younis, Mustafa A1 - Yu, Chuanhua A1 - Jin, Kim Yun A1 - El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa A1 - Zhao, Yong A1 - Zheng, Yingfeng A1 - Zhou, Maigeng A1 - Zhu, Jun A1 - Zou, Xiao Nong A1 - Lopez, Alan D A1 - Vos, Theo KW - Age Distribution KW - Epidemics KW - Female KW - Global Health KW - HIV Infections KW - Humans KW - Incidence KW - Malaria KW - Male KW - Mortality KW - Organizational Objectives KW - Sex Distribution KW - Tuberculosis AB -

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

VL - 384 IS - 9947 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25059949?dopt=Abstract ER -